| Predictions of
an "Asian Century" simply may not come true. The most compelling
arguments behind optimistic expectations for East Asia presume that
the region's recent high economic growth rates will continue unabated.
However, there are numerous sources of economic and political
volatility that are likely to affect the emergent economies of East
Asia (China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines or even Burma-Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam.) Similarly, there are pressing
questions about those East Asian economies which have moved further
along their life cycle such as Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South
Korea, and Taiwan. The controversial critique
of the "Asian Century" offered in this book focuses upon weaknesses in
the economic foundations of the region. Among these are contradictions
arising from the development strategies relied upon in much of East
Asia. Uneven economic development within individual countries enlarges
regional disparities in income distribution and increases internal
political tensions. Continuation of rapid growth will be challenged by
extensive corruption, rising costs, crowding, criminal cabals, and
contamination of the environment. All these problems, alone or
collectively, could dramatically reduce East Asia's "miracle" economic
performance.
It is commonly supposed that mutual economic
interests will keep the region pacified. However, historical rivalries
and enmities suggest that this view is overly optimistic and ignores
the cultural diversities and ethnic divisions among neighbors in the
region. Surely, heightened tensions resulting from a large number of
territorial disputes could lead to an arms race or open conflict that
would slow economic growth.
The basic thesis is that the cultural, economic, and
political institutions associated with East Asian countries may undo
the "Asian Century" before it can begin.
The expanded new edition includes a chapter on Hong
Kong after the handover to China, and an epilogue on the causes and
effects of the current Asian financial crisis.
Critics Comments
"The Rise & Decline of
the Asian Century is a must read for anyone seeking an informed
explanation of East Asia's current travails or who wants to know how
the region can best recover. In the years ahead it may come to be seen
as the leader of a new wave of revisionist scholarship on East Asia."
Survival
International Institute for
Strategic Studies' Quarterly
Winter
1998-99 (Vol 40/No 4) London
"The perverse and self-interested assaults on the
West from outside have seldom, if ever, been contested as
comprehensively....It is a brave book in the context of the current assymetry which makes it safe to deprecate Western failings whereas
mention of the oppressions and horrors elsewhere automatically brings
charges of cultural imperialism. In the teeth of this onslaught and
for fear of losing a share of the Wealth of the Indies (so to speak),
the defence of incipient democracy in Asia is close to being abandoned
to what Christopher Lingle calls a "preemptive cringe". The
indispensable freedom of expression so hard-won in the West is
similarly being surrendered by publishers willing to truncate their
lists for fear of losing Asian sales. Western leaders and businesses
are being flattered by the "New China Lobby" and the like into
ignoring not merely ethical failings but the actual risks of doing
business in countries where law and hence the enforcement of contracts
is unreliable.
"Lingle, an economics professor at Case Western
Reserve University, Cleveland, will have none of this. He mounts a
spirited defence of liberalism and free markets within an argument
that the institutions of East Asia will prove incapable of sustaining
high rates of economic growth.
"His writing is slightly repetitious but always
temperate and lucid. He meets fire with cold water, approaching what
he sees as the worm in the apple of the "East Asian miracle" from so
many angles that in the limited space of review one must pass over
most of them....
"Economics has a poor
record of forecasting the outcome of competition between systems; and
in any event the Tiger economies are buffered by the considerable
reserves they have built up during the past generation. Yet Lingle's
case that their growth phase has not been the harbinger of an Asian
century is informed, intelligent, internally consistent and clearly
stated. Anyone thinking of investing in East Asia and everyone
concerned about the region's political future would be well advised to
take it into account."
Eric Jones
Agenda, Melbourne
"Christopher Lingle has written a timely book that
asks many pertinent questions about Southeast Asia's next steps in
economic, political and social development. The book comes as Thailand
struggles to keep its economic engine chugging along in a climate
where no one is sure about the identity of the engineer. Is Thailand
adopting the Singapore model of a prime minister and a senior
minister? Or a Cambodian model with two prime ministers? Everyone
knows who's in charge in Burma and Vietnam, but are they helping or
hindering economic growth? China will soon cast out Hong Kong's
elected legislature. Suharto has recast the characters in Indonesia's
"shadow play" politics to ensure his seventh five-year term as
president and there's no heir in sight....
"Amid all this, Lingle writes a book which
proclaims: "...the cultural and political institutions associated with
the East Asian economies will contribute to the unravelling of the
promise of the 'Asian Century'."
"Why? Because, according to Lingle, the winners in
the post-industrial international economic order will be those
countries where cultural and political institutions readily adapt to
rapidly changing conditions. Survival and success in the next century,
he insists, "will require flexible, efficient institutions and
innovative, risk-taking entrepreneurs".
""Economic advance is
impossible when the human spirit is imprisoned by rigid rules and
inefficient institutions." He asserts, of course, that current East
Asian regimes impede their free-thinking, innovative citizens.
Furthermore, their authoritarianism will ultimately cause their
stagnations and eventual decline."
Dennis J.
Coday
The Nation, Bangkok
"It is becoming fashionable these days to debunk the
Asian economic miracle. Former governor Chris Patten is writing a book
to flesh out his oft-stated belief that it is all a mirage. Stanford
University academic Paul Krugman's efforts to dismiss the region's
phenomenal growth rates as more than the inevitable result of greater
land, labour and capital inputs have received renewed attention in the
wake of the recent currency and stock market crises.
"It is a theory worth considering and Christopher
Lingle makes some good points....Lingle fled Singapore to avoid being
jailed after writing an article (in the International Herald
Tribune) criticising the island state's judiciary.
"The book's central thesis is that the media and
other commentators are guilty of hyping the coming of an Asian century
while exaggerating the decline of the West.
"There are some useful
points in the book, such as the fact that 99 percent of patents in
Singapore are awarded to foreign investors. This is attributed to a
failure to encourage creative thinking, a shortcoming that the
Singapore Government would probably not dispute, since it has recently
taken action to address this problem...."
Danny
Gittings
South China Morning Post
Readers Comments
Extract
Copyright © Christopher
Lingle
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